predictions for tonight's debate

I didn't think the VP debate would be a bloodbath. Of course, I never wrote it down so it's easy to say, "yeah, yeah, smart guy, you say that NOW, in hindsight..."

So this time, I'll put my predictions down and we'll see what happens.

1. It will not be a bloodbath.
2. McCain will indeed resort to character assassination, as his campaign promises.
3. Obama will counter-attack with Keating - all the while staying focused on the economy, which is, obviously, McCain's biggest weakness.
   

McCain is in a defensive position brought on by his turn to negative campaigning. If he goes beyond casting doubts voters accept as fair to launching attacks seen as baseless, he will come across as desperate and bitter.

All Obama needs to do is stay cool, talk about the economy, and focus on connecting with voters. Biden was good at mixing in some personal talk with the policy talk; it defused Palin's single-minded focus of trying to bond with voters via the small town folksiness. If Obama can pepper his focus on the issues with more personal stories, more anecdotes from everyday folk, he'll connect really well. Bonus points: subtly needling McCain in a way that doesn't scream "bait" but will provoke McCain into overreacting.